States and localities across the U.S. are already experiencing profound weather shifts associated with climate change, from rising sea levels and flooding to drought and dangerously hot summers. Economists have long been warning that these changes will come with a cost. But until now, there’s been no measure of what that cost might be for individual counties.
A study published in the journal Science in June is the most extensive model available of what climate change could cost the United States, county by county. (View an interactive map at the bottom of this article). The study is the first of its kind, linking climate projections with economic effects like mortality, labor productivity, energy demand and crop yields.
By far, the largest economic cost across the U.S. is loss of human life to heat-related injuries. Huge swaths of the South could see these kinds of deaths spike to more than 20 people out of every 100,000. In addition, energy costs will increase as people use air conditioning more often, labor productivity will suffer for those who work outdoors, crop yields will decrease and rising seas will swallow up valuable coastal properties.
The findings are striking for their specificity and their prediction of growing inequality spurred by climate change.
According to the study, the American South and lower Midwest will bear the brunt of the economic costs associated with climate change through the end of the century.